Mailbag: Suns' restart, offseason and ... casting Hamilton?
Thanks, Valley Tales readers, for submitting your questions!
The Suns have been inside the NBA’s Orlando restart bubble for more than a week, which means basketball is officially on the brain of the Valley Tales readers.
Thanks for your wide-ranging questions about what’s at stake for Phoenix at Walt Disney World, the franchise’s looming offseason decisions and how I would cast “Hamilton” using the current roster (yes, really!).
This also feels like an appropriate time to say thanks for reading the first three weeks of Valley Tales. Your support is humbling.
That is the question, isn’t it? And I’m not sure the Suns even know the answer to that yet.
Coach Monty Williams has said multiple times that he has been particularly mindful of players’ conditioning in practice, estimating Wednesday that, at that point, they could play about a quarter of a full-blown NBA game. General manager James Jones said prior to the team’s departure that he expects the early games to be sloppy. If something does not go well in Orlando, the wackiness of this whole experience is a built-in (and legitimate!) excuse.
So I don’t think record will matter much to the coaching staff and front office, particularly given the quality of competition. Still, more data on individual and collective development is never a bad thing.
Even with Kelly Oubre Jr.’s status up in the air, this should be the healthiest Phoenix’s roster has been in quite some time. These eight games offer an opportunity to experiment with lineup combinations and style of play, such as giving Devin Booker a handful of point-guard minutes or giving up a little in transition defense in order to hunt more rebounds to create more offensive possessions.
I’ll dive a little bit more into storylines as the games get closer, but let’s start with these three:
How does Deandre Ayton finish out his second NBA season that was unusual long before COVID-19? We saw flashes of dominance on both ends of the floor throughout 30 games. That Ayton and Shaquille O’Neal are the only players under the age of 22 to average at least 19 points, 12 rebounds and 1.5 blocks per game in a season has been circulating since Mike Schmitz’s excellent ESPN video breakdown, though Ayton’s current sample size is obviously less than half of a typical season. But consistent play, against tough opponents, during this restart could create a buzz around Ayton that stretches into the start of next season.
I’m very curious about Dario Saric. Cam Johnson adding between 10 and 12 pounds of muscle made the social-media rounds earlier this week. But Williams has also been very complimentary of Saric’s physical transformation, which began with some diet changes before the season shut down. He will be a restricted free agent this offseason, and these eight games could help determine his future fit with this group.
How do the young point guards perform? Finding a steady veteran is surely an offseason priority. But who might stick around out of the group of Jevon Carter, Ty Jerome and Elie Okobo? The Suns have the most invested in Jerome, whose early-season ankle injury essentially derailed his chances of playing consistently as a rookie. Carter, who is about to become a free agent, brings reliable on-ball defense and improved 3-point shooting, but struggled to run the offense. And is new signee Cam Payne a factor at all?
No. This was a way to get the largest number of teams involved in the bubble as (semi-reasonably) possible. It helps fill regional television contracts, and gives us all more games as contenders tune up for the playoffs. This was not a “reward” for the Suns finally showing noticeable progress, though they want to take advantage of the fact that they were invited to the party.
Always a pleasure, Baynes Fan Club!
After battling multiple injuries throughout the season, the long layoff likely benefitted Baynes. And the rhythm of this restart — games one after the other, while playing in a singular location — has the feel of international competition.
A dream Finals run is, well, a dream. But this could be an important finish for Baynes, who is an unrestricted free agent this offseason.
Worth noting: Baynes is one of six Suns players that reporters have not spoken on a Zoom press conference and/or have not shown up in official team photos of videos. The others are Ricky Rubio, Mikal Bridges, Jalen Lecque, Tariq Owens and Okobo. If I accidentally missed somebody, please let me know.
I’ll answer the second question first, to sort of wrap up the bubble/restart portion before transitioning to the offseason portion.
As mentioned above, Ayton might have the most to gain as far as league-wide attention. But these eight games are also a closing argument, of sorts, for the potential free-agents-to-be (Baynes, Carter, Saric, Frank Kaminsky and Cheick Diallo). They’re also important for Jerome and fellow rookie Cam Johnson, who get to come back and play more games following a break that could be equated to a typical NBA offseason. And the under-the-radar answer is Payne, a former lottery draft pick who is trying to get back into the league.
If Oubre tries to play on that knee, he might have the most to lose. Or if we want to get super cynical, this unconventional ramp-up environment is an injury risk for every single player.
I’m putting Baynes last, simply because he is an unrestricted free agent and has way more control over where he plays next season. The Suns can choose to pick up the team option on Kaminsky, and/or match any offer for Saric (provided they initially extend a qualifying offer).
I’ll say it’s a slightly higher chance that Kaminsky is back than Saric, because that is the simplest move of the three. With Saric, all it takes is one team to make a crazy-lucrative offer for the Suns to determine they’re better off letting him go.
Much of this, of course, depends on Phoenix’s potential to land a big name such as Danilo Gallinari and Davis Bertans in free agency, and/or the trade market for players such as Aaron Gordon, Lauri Markkanen or Kevin Love.
I also can’t help but go back to a post-trade deadline conversation with Jones, who said he did not make a move because he wanted to see things through with the current group. The season went dark about a month later, so that curiosity and eagerness probably still lingers. There’s a decent chance that all three players are back, especially given the projected salary cap shrink (more on that in a bit).
To recap, from most likely to least likely: Kaminsky, Saric, Baynes.
I’ll refer back to the analysis by pal and former colleague John Hollinger, who broke down several scenarios for filling both roles. His suggestion that still seems the most plausible today: keep Baynes, Saric and Kaminsky (on one-year deals), and use the mid-level exception on a capable backup guard such as Reggie Jackson, Michael Carter-Williams or D.J. Augustin.
Another key variable is where the Suns land in the draft lottery. If they stay in the 10ish range, Tyrese Haliburton, Killian Hayes or Precious Achiuwa could be available. If they move up, they could snag Obi Toppin, Onyeka Okongwu, Deni Avdija or LaMelo Ball.
If looking purely at age, skillset and recent development, Woods would make a ton of sense. He was playing great before the league shut down (and he was diagnosed with COVID-19), scoring at least 18 points in each of his final 10 games.
But how much would Phoenix be willing to offer to ensure the Pistons don’t match? That would likely lead to an overpay. Would that money be better allocated somewhere else on the roster, or as part of an effort to land an even better player?
And based on the trade-deadline rumblings, Luke Kennard is still probably the more likely Piston to someday become a Sun.
Depends on your definition of “big.” Again, we still don’t know what this season’s lost revenue will do to the salary cap, and if the ramifications will extend beyond this offseason.
It will also be interesting to monitor the entire 2021 free-agent class, especially if players such as Giannis Antetokounmpo and Anthony Davis are part of it. The ripple-effects of a star-studded group shifting teams could impact a player like Oubre, as they did last summer. When Kawhi Leonard chose the Clippers and, in response, the Lakers quickly used their held cap space on a bunch of veterans (Danny Green, etc.), the market quickly dried up for Oubre and returning to Phoenix was his best option.
That said, Oubre is coming off the best season of his career, and is still young. Williams often talks about Oubre’s uniqueness as a player who does not need to have plays drawn up for him, and can make things happen with his athleticism and attacking mentality. His 3-point shooting has improved, and he brings obvious intangibles that spark the locker room and fan base.
That talent, presence and contract status, though, also make Oubre perhaps the Suns’ the best trade asset entering the 2020-21 season, should they take a big swing for a significant upgrade at power forward or something like that. The fact that Bridges and Johnson primarily play the same position would help ease the blow of losing Oubre.
No doubt, Oubre’s future is one of the Suns’ biggest storylines entering next season.
In terms of long-term prognostication, this might be the biggest question facing the franchise.
This season, Booker became an All-Star. He has elevated his game every season of his career, including his playmaking in 2019-20 and shooting efficiency this season. He is already a max-contract player, and is only 23 years old.
Right now, he is the Suns’ best player. But, you’re right, there’s a difference between being a non-playoff team’s No. 1 guy, and being a contender’s centerpiece. If Booker does not ultimately morph into that, the Suns’ first hope is that Ayton becomes a perennial All-NBA big man, creating a dangerous inside-outside duo.
If the Suns need to search outside to fill that role, things obviously get trickier. For obvious reasons, Phoenix has not been a free-agent destination for star players for years. Traditionally, the draft has been the best way to organically build a team, but we’re seeing more players take control of their careers in their prime years.
The Suns believe Booker and Ayton are the franchise cornerstones. In five years, we’ll see if they’re right.
For those who don’t care about Hamilton or silliness, thanks for reading!
For those who are still here and are, therefore, my true pals: I love this question so much, and have thought about it more than I care to admit.
Alexander Hamilton: Devin Booker. Obviously, he is the star of the show. But Hamilton’s “there’s a million things I haven’t done, but just you wait” attitude also fits Booker perfectly.
Aaron Burr: Deandre Ayton. This is not to imply that there is a rivalry between Booker and Ayton, or that their partnership in Phoenix will eventually end in ugly fashion. But, like Burr, Ayton is often overlooked, despite being the top overall draft pick in 2018 (thanks, Luka). And we know he was itching to be in The Room Where it Happens while serving his 25-game suspension earlier this season. He was barred from the arena during games, and watched on TV from his home or hotel room.
Marquis de Lafayette/Thomas Jefferson: Kelly Oubre Jr. This dual supporting role is so electrifying that it often steals the show, much like Oubre when he flies in for a one-handed dunk and blows kisses to the crowd. That Tony winner Daveed Diggs and Oubre both have long hair is a bonus.
Hercules Mulligan/James Madison: Aron Baynes. Mulligan is not afraid to do the dirty work, spying on British officials while working as a tailor. And how can the NSFW lines “See, that’s what happens when we up against the ruffians. We in the shit now, somebody gotta shovel it. Hercules Mulligan, I need no introduction. If you knock me down, I get the fuck back up again!” not apply to Baynes?
John Laurens/Philip Hamilton: Dario Saric. Laurens is the least-flashy of Hamilton’s crew of revolutionaries. Later in the show, the (spoiler!) death of Hamilton’s son Philip is a storytelling vehicle that drives Alexander and wife Eliza back together. Those characters capture Saric’s complementary style of play.
Eliza Hamilton: Ricky Rubio. I often forget how much Eliza anchors the entire story, much like Rubio as he initiates the Suns’ offense and puts others in a position to shine.
Angelica Schuyler: Mikal Bridges. Bridges is a relentless worker. He will never be satisfied.
Peggy Schuyler/Maria Reynolds: Frank Kaminsky. I have no good reasoning for this, other than the end of the video below makes me think I could coax Kaminsky into giving us a terrifically hilarious “And Peggy!”
George Washington: Monty Williams. You said to use players, but this is the obvious choice. When the Revolutionary War is the “hard,” what’s on the other side? The United States of America. And Williams always speaks as if he is mindful that history has its eyes on him.
“The bullet”: Jevon Carter. Hardcore Hamilton fans easily spot and appreciate this featured ensemble member, who “holds” and slowly directs an invisible bullet shot at Hamilton from a British solider’s gun early in the show, then mimics the same motion when Burr fires at the end. For some reason, the small-but-important nature of the role makes me think of Carter digging in to pick up full-court, or burying an out-of-the blue 3-pointer.
King George III: No comment.
"King George III: No comment." lol
Delightful! Thank you for not throwing away your shot at finishing the season